Wednesday 6 February 2013

Always darkest before the dawn? The uncertainty of the new Italian political landscape

When Berlusconi stepped down as PM in favour of Mario Monti, there were scenes of jubilant celebration throughout Italy. In front of Parliament, hordes of citizens uncorked bottles of champagne in a symbolic gesture of celebration.
One year on, the partys have died down. The Monti government's insistence on pushing austerity have lost his government favour with young graduates and the unemployed. His willingness to cut spending has not translated into the political sphere: The costs of maintaining politicians in Italy continues to be the highest in Europe, and highly criticized privileges and golden pensions have not been seriously tackled. Albeit all the statements he made when first appointed PM, the costs of maintaining our political class has not significantly diminished (Auto blu scandal link).
His ministers have done nothing to help his cause. Initially gaining wide consensus from the electorate, they have managed to tarnish their reputations and their approval ratings through constant indecision and poorly planned actions. Passera (Minister for Economic Development) has been seen as a pawn of the banking elite, pushing favourable legislation in favour of Unicredit and others. Interior Minister Cancellieri was heavily criticized in November for not adequately punishing policemen who attacked peaceful protestors last year in Rome. Basic requests, which include the the mandatory police badge numbers fell on deaf ears and further worsened her image in the eyes of younger generations. Elsa Fornero (Minister of Labour) added insult to injury to a nation with 34% youth unemplyoment when she claimed that youngsters must not complain when they are laid off but rather see it as an opportunity to try their hand at something new.
The unpopularity of Monti's ministers dont seem to have rubbed of on Monti himself. A report by Ipr Marketing shows how the approval ratings for the Monti government have fallen from 58 % in November 2011 to the current 32 %. Monti's personal approval rating has only dropped by 4% from November 2011, from 52 to 48 %.
These approval ratings give plausability to rumours that Monti is set to remain PM in case the national elections in 2013 dont give any party a clear majority. The logic behind this reasoning is that without a clear majority, any party will find it incredibly difficult to govern and continue passing reforms in line with the EU austerity guidelines. This uncertainty would further destabalize the markets and cause the Spread (difference between Italian and German treasury bonds) to increase back to pre-Monti levels.
Such reasoning would make sense in the current Italian political landscape which has been redrawn after the demise of Berlusconi. The Cavaliere's party, PDL, is struggling to find a charismatic successor that can capture the masses' imagination in the same way Berlusconi did. Furthermore, they are uinevitably bound to loose a mountain of votes even from hard core supporters who are disgusted with Berlusconi;s scandals and view him as at least partly responsible for the dire situation Italy finds itself. His successor will have to be skillful in uniting a party in chaos while distancing himself from the Cavaliere. At the moment, there is no such candidate. As a result, many votes are likely to be dispersed amongst minor center-right parties.
The main opposition party, the PD, is in better conditions but with multiple problems of their own. They are currently in the process of holding primaries and as it stands the current party secretary, Bersani, is set to be their front runner in the national elections. He has a narrow margin over the rising superstar of Italian politics and current mayor of Florence Matteo Renzi. Bersani will undoubtably capture the elderly vote, but will also alienate younger generations who see him as a member of the old political cast and would have preferred a more youthful option such as Renzi.
Moving away from the centrist parties, the "Movimento 5 Stelle" (M5S) led by popular comedian and political satirist Beppe Grillo is bound to pick up the majority of the radical votes. They are also likely to pick up votes from youngsters who have difficulty relating to Bersani or other elderly politicians, and see this as a chance to upset the political establishment.
Given these considerations, it is unlikely that the threshold to obtain a relative majority will be reached. The landscape is uncertain, with the only absolute truth being that the PDL will lose their privilieged position in Italian politics
A second Monti term thus seems to be on the horizon, to the tiepid dissapointment of Italians and outright joy of EU leaders.